Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
